Below-normal September rains raise crop, inflation risks

India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall in September, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday (August 31, 2026) forecasting rainfall across the country to be at least 9% short of the long-period average of 167.9 mm. This comes after India experienced the hottest August since 1901.

Many parts of the country are expected to remain drier than normal, although parts of northwest, northeast, east, east-central India and isolated areas of southeast peninsular India could receive “normal to above-normal rainfall”.

September brings in about a fifth of the June-September monsoon rain, less than July’s 32% and August’s 29%. In recent years, September rainfall has seen a relative uptick. As of August 31, India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall was about 14% below normal, with central India in surplus but the northwest, east and northeast, and south peninsula all recording deficits. The shortfall was particularly pronounced in the east and northeast, and in the southern peninsula.