India to get below-normal rain in July, El Nino to grip monsoon

India's southwest monsoon is likely to remain under pressure in July, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country as El Nino conditions continue to strengthen over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Releasing its monthly outlook on Tuesday, the IMD said rainfall over the country during July 2026 is most likely to be below normal, with precipitation expected to be less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The long-term average rainfall for July, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 280.4 mm.

The forecast comes after India recorded one of its driest Junes in more than a century, with rainfall ending 39% below normal and June 2026 becoming the fifth-driest June since 1901.