How the Iran war is weakening Donald Trump

Vexed by negative coverage, Mr Trump is describing critical media outlets as “Corrupt and Highly Unpatriotic”. On March 15th he said he was “thrilled” to hear that his Federal Communications Commission might review the broadcast licences of those that peddle “FAKE NEWS”.

Yet one source of gloomy news cannot plausibly be muzzled: the signs outside petrol stations. Every day motorists see big, bright reminders that fuel costs more than it did. And the pain is worse in states that backed Mr Trump in 2024. Because petrol taxes tend to be lower under Republicans, an increase in the oil price leads to a steeper hike in prices at the pump in red states than in blue ones.

History suggests that when fuel prices rise, voters are more likely to vote against the incumbent president. Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush all lost office after oil-price spikes.