Indian economy may pick up growth pace to 7.5% in 2019 on lower oil prices, says IMF

Washington: India is projected to grow at 7.5 percent in 2019 and 7.7 percent in 2020, an impressive over one percentage point ahead of China’s estimated growth of 6.2 percent in these two years, the IMF said on Monday attributing the pick up to the lower oil prices and a slower pace of monetary tightening.

The International Monetary Fund in its January World Economy Outlook update on Monday said India would remain the fastest growing major economies of the world.

“India’s economy is poised to pick up in 2019, benefiting from lower oil prices and a slower pace of monetary tightening than previously expected, as inflation pressures ease,” the IMF said.

Despite fiscal stimulus that offsets some of the impact of higher US tariffs, China’s economy will slow down due to the combined influence of needed financial regulatory tightening and trade tensions with the US, the IMF said in its latest report.

Growth in emerging and developing Asia will dip from 6.5 percent in 2018 to 6.3 percent in 2019 and 6.4 percent in 2020, it said.

China which grew at 6.9 percent in 2017, as compared to 6.7 percent by India, had a growth rate of 6.6 percent in 2018. In the next two years – 2019 and 2020 – it is projected to grow at 6.2 percent each, the IMF said.

The latest IMF projections remains unchanged from its previous World Economic Outlook projections.

While, the Chinese growth rate has been on a downward slope, according to IMF, India has experienced an upward trajectory in these years.

The IMF said India’s growth rate in 2018 was 7.3 percent.

It has been projected to grow at 7.5 percent in 2019, which is a marginal 0.1 percent above its previous projection. In 2020, India is projected to grow at 7.7 percent.

The IMF report comes a day after PwC’s Global Economy Watch said that India is likely to surpass the United Kingdom in the world’s largest economy rankings in 2019.

“India and France are likely to surpass the UK in the world’s largest economy rankings in 2019, knocking it from fifth to seventh place in the global table,” the report said.

“India should return to a healthy growth rate of 7.6 percent in 2019-20, if there are no major headwinds in the global economy such as enhanced trade tensions or supply side shocks in oil.

“The growth will be supported through further realisation of efficiency gains from the newly adopted Goods and Services Tax and policy impetus expected in the first year of a new government,” said Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader – Public Finance and Economics, PwC India.

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