Infosys tanks 6% on lower margin guidance
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Infosys tanks 6% on lower margin guidance

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Infosys' constant currency revenue growth guidance of 6-8% year-on-year (y-o-y) for FY19 was on expected lines. The marginal beat can be ascribed to a weaker exit in 4Q (0.6% CC) than our expectation (1.5% CC). This implies that the compounded quarterly growth rate (CQGR) will be better if the guidance is met.

To meet its guidance range of 6-8% y-o-y constant currency (CC) revenue growth in FY19, Infosys will have to clock a CQGR of 1.8-2.5% in the next year. We are assuming 7.5% y-o-y CC growth factoring the guidance and incremental revenue from the acquisition. A cross-currency tailwind of 130 basis points (bps) would imply USD revenue growth of 8.8% for FY19.

Net profit grew 2.4% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to Rs 36.9 billion, below our estimate of Rs 38 billion, due to an impairment loss of Rs 1 billion taken in respect of Panaya.

Infosys also cut its FY19 EBIT margin guidance to 22-24% versus the FY18 band of 23-25%. This will largely factor in investments in localised talent, revitalising sales, digital capabilities and delivery staff. The 1% revision amounts to $120 million, and considering that these are investments in people, which will only come gradually, we see the lower end of the margin band as conservative, and expect it to be raised during the course of the year.

The additional $2 billion payout over and above the normal dividend payout (policy of 70% of FCF) ...

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